How does Cognocient forecast my AI spend?
Know your AI bill before it arrives. Cognocient projects next month's spend by feature and department, and generates 30/60/90-day forecasts using linear regression on your actual spend history.
Cognocient projects next month's AI bill by feature and department using linear regression on your actual spend history. 30, 60, and 90-day forecasts update daily so you know whether you're on track before the month ends.
Forecast tabs
The Forecast page has three tabs:
| Tab | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Trend Forecast | Current-month projection based on daily run-rate and budget headroom |
| 30/60/90 Projections | Linear regression forecasts for 30, 60, and 90 days out, broken down per feature |
| What-If Scenarios | Model growth scenarios and see which budgets would breach (Business plan) |
30/60/90 Projections
This is the FinOps core forecasting view. Cognocient fits a linear trend to your last 60 days of daily spend per feature and projects forward.
How it works
- Daily spend is grouped by feature tag (
X-Cost-Feature) - A linear regression is fitted to the historical series
- The slope (trend) is projected forward to 30, 60, and 90 day windows
- Features with fewer than 3 days of data are excluded
Reading the projection table
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Trend | Direction and daily rate of change (up, down, or stable) |
| Avg/day | Mean daily spend over the data window |
| 30/60/90d forecast | Projected cumulative spend over that period |
| Confidence | Bar shows how many days of history back the projection (longer = higher confidence) |
A full bar (60 days of history) means a high-confidence projection. A short bar means the forecast is based on limited data and may be less reliable.
Trend indicators
- ↑ Up — spend is growing day over day. Red badge. Consider setting or lowering a budget.
- ↓ Down — spend is falling. Green badge. Optimisations are working.
- — Stable — flat spend. Grey badge.
Forecasts are linear extrapolations. They do not account for seasonal patterns, new features you are about to ship, or budget enforcement triggering mid-period. Use forecasts as a planning guide and pair them with budgets to enforce the ceiling.
Attribution required
Projections break down by feature only when you pass X-Cost-Feature on your API calls. Calls without a feature header appear as untagged in the forecast.
→ See Attribution Headers for setup instructions.
Trend Forecast (current month)
This tab shows your projected spend for the current billing cycle using a daily run-rate extrapolation. It accounts for:
- Day-of-week and time-of-day patterns
- Growth rate trend per feature
- Applied routing rules and their observed cost impact
The forecast is displayed with a confidence range. Features with highly variable usage show wider ranges; stable features show narrow bands.
Budget headroom indicator — For each active budget, the forecast shows how much headroom remains. Budgets projected to be exceeded are flagged in amber.
Savings opportunity callout — If applying pending recommendations would materially change the forecast, Cognocient shows a "With recommendations applied" projection line.
What-If Scenarios
Model usage growth scenarios and see which budgets would breach at each multiplier. Available on Business plan.
| Scenario type | What you configure | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Usage growth | Increase volume by X% | Projected cost at new volume level |
| Apply recommendations | Select pending recommendations | Forecast with and without the optimisation |
| Model change | Change model for a feature from X to Y | Projected savings over 3/6/12 months |
Export any scenario as a PDF with the baseline forecast, scenario assumptions, and projected cost difference — useful for quarterly budget reviews.
Forecast-based budget alerts
Enable Forecast Alerts in Settings → Notifications to receive a warning when Cognocient projects a budget will be exceeded before it happens.
| Threshold | Action |
|---|---|
| 7 days before projected breach | Email to FinOps lead and department head |
| 3 days before projected breach | Slack alert + email to finance approver |
| Projection changes by >20% | Immediate notification — conditions changed materially |
Next steps: Budgets · AI Advisor · Executive View
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